SAIC Group (600104) October Sales Review: Independently Continues Growth and Joint Venture Awaits Industry Recovery

The company released the October 2019 production and sales report: the total monthly car sales volume was 54.

40,000 vehicles, a decrease of 9 per year.

6%, a decrease from the previous month.

0%.

Among them, the monthly sales of SAIC passenger cars (autonomous) was 6.

10,000 vehicles, an increase of 0 in ten years.

9%; SAIC Volkswagen 16.

90,000 vehicles, a decrease of 6 every year.

4%; SAIC GM 13.

70,000 vehicles, a decrease of 25 per year.

3%; SAIC-GM-Wuling sales of 15.

100,000 vehicles, a decrease of 6 a year.

7%.

From January to October 2019, the company’s cumulative car sales were 495.

80,000, a decrease of 13 a year.

7%.

Analysis and judgment: Autonomy: SAIC passenger cars maintained growth, and GM Wuling’s deviation narrowed significantly. 1) SAIC Passenger Cars continued to increase its wholesale sales volume since July 2019. This month, it achieved a month-on-month increase and an increase of 0.

9%, an increase of 6 from the previous month.

1%, after January 2019, the sales volume returned to more than 60,000 units for the first time; in October 2019, the passenger vehicle industry ‘s wholesale sales volume decreased by 6%, and retail sales decreased by more than 3%. SAIC ‘s passenger vehicle performance reflects the industry and mainly benefitsIn the “Golden Nine Silver Ten” auto market, the sales volume of old products was repaired during the peak season.

The main SUV models, the Roewe RX5 and the MG ZS, each sold 1 in October.

9, 1.

40,000 vehicles, an increase of 13 from the previous month.

7%, 78.

4%; Roewe i5, MG 6深圳spa会所 performed well, with October sales of 1.

0, 0.

60,000 vehicles.

2) SAIC-GM-Wuling sales increase in October decreased 6.
.

7%, an increase of 2% month-on-month, the excess range has narrowed significantly (extension in September decreased by 13.
).

7%), mainly due to the increase in Baojun’s product cycle, and new product listings contributed a considerable increase.

Baojun series new products RM-5, RS3, RS5, RC-6 sold 0 in October.

8, 0.

4, 0.

2, 0.

30,000 vehicles, a total of 1.

The sales of 80,000 new models helped SAIC-GM-Wuling achieve significant improvements.

Joint venture: SAIC Volkswagen and GM have accumulated capacity at the bottom, waiting for the industry to recover 1) SAIC Volkswagen sales in October decreased by 6.
4%, a decrease of 4 from the previous quarter.

9%, expected to turn positive by the end of the fourth quarter of 2019.
The product structure of SAIC Volkswagen’s brand is reasonable, and the proportion of SUV models and sales has increased (Tuanguan, Tuyue, Tujia, and Tuang sales in October were 1.

8, 1.

2, 0.

7, 0.

80,000, Volkswagen’s four SUV models contributed 4 overall.

Sales of 40,000 vehicles accounted for 26 of SAIC Volkswagen’s total sales.

4%); In 2019, three new energy models (Tuanguan PHEV / Passat PHEV / Longyi EV) were launched, which contributed to the increase in sales and eased the pressure on the brand’s double points.

In the medium and long term, an Audi joint venture is expected to inject, driving the average price of bicycles and increasing profit trends.

2) SAIC-GM’s October sales increased and decreased by 25.

3%, a decrease of 2 from the previous quarter.

3%.

Mid-to-high-end joint venture brands Buick and Chevrolet have been seized by some cost-effective Japanese brands in some markets. Only the MPV business model Buick GL8 is scarce and has a clear competitive advantage, with 10 months of sales1.

50,000 vehicles, an increase of 30 in ten years.

8%; in the future, SAIC-GM will focus on the second-tier luxury brand Cadillac models and sales growth, driving product structure optimization.

The two joint venture brands SAIC Volkswagen and GM are still at the bottom of the reserve stage, waiting for the recovery of the industry to drive sales recovery.

Investment suggestion The characteristics of the bottom of the passenger car industry are obvious, and the increase in automobile consumption stimulus policies has gradually come into being, and the industry has gradually started to reorganize. As a leader in passenger cars, the company has achieved sustainable growth on its own, and collectively needs to be repaired. In the process of joint sales recovery, the scale ofThe effect is prominent, and the performance is repaired quarter by quarter.

We maintain our profit forecast: It is expected that the company’s net profit attributable to its parent from 2019 to 2021 will be US $ 312/360/389 billion, with a daily breakdown of 13% / 15% / 8%; earnings per share will be 2.

67/3.

08/3.

33 yuan, corresponding to PE8.

9/7.

7/7.

1 times.

Provide 10 times PE for passenger car faucets in 2019 and maintain target price of 26.

7 yuan to maintain the “overweight” level.

Risks indicate downside risks to the auto market; sales of old models fall short of expectations; new model listings fall short of expectations; auto consumption stimulus policies fall short of expectations.